DougB exposes "Champagne Rune" SS Decal Fraud and Adds a Coffin Nail to XRFacts
- Thread starter Hambone
- Start date
I'm skeptical and pessimistic for a living. I look for the angles, motives, fault, and the money trail which invariably reveals the former. M45, I'm just not seeing the "culpable DougB" at all. I see the "whistle blower Doug" and someone the hobby should be grateful to for having a spine and integrity, both things that too many lack in the 3R collecting hobby.
This is not anyone take sides against you. You are a respected and valued member here who has not only done much for the hobby with your work, but are credited by DougB for exposing the Great Shampain Ruin Fraud. The people here commenting I know personally, they are friends of mine, and none of them has any reason to opine as they do except to be calling it as they see it. I'm doing the same.
This is not anyone take sides against you. You are a respected and valued member here who has not only done much for the hobby with your work, but are credited by DougB for exposing the Great Shampain Ruin Fraud. The people here commenting I know personally, they are friends of mine, and none of them has any reason to opine as they do except to be calling it as they see it. I'm doing the same.
tjg79
Senior Member
As the first to show, by compiling devastating evidence against the legitimacy of C-SS lids, that all C-SS lids were likely post-war fabrications, because of their random production distribution, I think it's difficult for M45 to comprehend that prominent SS lid collectors, to include the God of Lids, could be fooled by the spray-job. Combine the lot number study evidence, released in 2011, with posted digital images of overspray and flaking, delaminating, or chipped Champagne Rune insignia and it's easy to assume that these SS lid gurus must have known something wasn't correct well before 2015. Maybe some did, but feared being viewed as fallible or rocking the lid hobby boat. Because the C-SS lid was legitimatized by publishing in lid picture books before the internet, it was a given that they were correct. But, forum posts seem to indicate that prominent SS lid collectors were fooled and were very slow to realize the growing heap of evidence against C-SS lid. The exceptions are the lid GOBs that condone fakery, because it's bad for business to out high end fakes.
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M45
Well-known member
Hambone, since you root out shenanigans and fakery for a living, you
(1) look at the money trail as you mentioned, but you also look for
(2) those making false statements in regard to the fraud. Once those making false statements have been identified, then a judge or court will determine culpability. Of course they will look at many other things, not just backtracking and apologies (a dime a dozen).
Was everyone fooled by C-SS, even the authors and "experts" ?? There is something in criminal justice called "the reasonable man". Would a reasonable man believe that SS helmet authors and SS helmet experts who have no doubt seen literally thousands of authentic SS helmets in their careers in addition to outing probably 100's of fake SS decals be fooled by a clumsy painted on fake insignia examined UNDER MAGNIFICATION ? Remember, we are not talking about the average joe collector here. We are talking about SS helmet book authors and owners of literally WALLS of authentic SS helmets.
I think as it sits it is a long shot to think that a jury would ever believe they were "fooled" (unless it was stacked with tjg's). And that is before you add in all of the blatantly false statements they made, all of the harassment given to honest collectors just looking for the truth, and the admissions by some key SS collectors who admitted they never believed in C-SS after clearly vetting them as authentic on helmet forums.
Also note that DougB's 'wall o helmets' was not covered with C-SS. It was covered with known period TR produced examples; Pocher-SS, ET-SS, EF-SS, and Q-SS among others. It appears that he actually owned comparatively few C-SS helmets. It does not sound as if he was that firm of a 'believer' in them.
(1) look at the money trail as you mentioned, but you also look for
(2) those making false statements in regard to the fraud. Once those making false statements have been identified, then a judge or court will determine culpability. Of course they will look at many other things, not just backtracking and apologies (a dime a dozen).
Was everyone fooled by C-SS, even the authors and "experts" ?? There is something in criminal justice called "the reasonable man". Would a reasonable man believe that SS helmet authors and SS helmet experts who have no doubt seen literally thousands of authentic SS helmets in their careers in addition to outing probably 100's of fake SS decals be fooled by a clumsy painted on fake insignia examined UNDER MAGNIFICATION ? Remember, we are not talking about the average joe collector here. We are talking about SS helmet book authors and owners of literally WALLS of authentic SS helmets.
I think as it sits it is a long shot to think that a jury would ever believe they were "fooled" (unless it was stacked with tjg's). And that is before you add in all of the blatantly false statements they made, all of the harassment given to honest collectors just looking for the truth, and the admissions by some key SS collectors who admitted they never believed in C-SS after clearly vetting them as authentic on helmet forums.
Also note that DougB's 'wall o helmets' was not covered with C-SS. It was covered with known period TR produced examples; Pocher-SS, ET-SS, EF-SS, and Q-SS among others. It appears that he actually owned comparatively few C-SS helmets. It does not sound as if he was that firm of a 'believer' in them.
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tjg79
Senior Member
What are the total population numbers of SS lids? What are the total population numbers of C-SS spray-jobs? If Doug B owned two C-SS lids, he owned a significant percentage of total C-SS lids. Doug B's total collection of legit SS lids aren't a significant percentage of the total population. I don't get the impression that Doug B bought his C-SS lids, knowing they were fakes, for the purpose of flipping them for profit.
Doug B got burned on his C-SS lids. He refunded a buyer for buying one of his C-SS lids, because he now knows they are fake spray-jobs. Doug B was refused a refund for a C-SS lid with Hicks' COA. If he knew they were fake, why did he try to get a refund from his alleged scam buddy with his COA?
If Doug B lacked integrity, he would've unloaded his C-SS lids without their Hicks' COAs the moment he realized they were fakes. He likely could have recovered his costs. Doug B didn't do that.
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M45
Well-known member
Tjg, don't forget that the "Grand Plan" (for widespread C-SS acceptance) was wrecked by lot# research. An alternate plan was required to salvage DougB's reputation (damage control). He did not fully 'come clean' with the Mythbusting work until AFTER he purchased the lot# book (and no doubt realized that the C-SS game was over). Yes, he flip-flopped 180 degrees over 10 years time, saved face by making some apologies and OK-ing the lot# book (finally) and took some hits on his "vet acquired" hkip M42 C-SS (private purchase DECALS, remember ?) and his 1944 dated C-SS M42s (remember his theory that SS decals were being factory applied in 1944 ?).
He took a hit on VERY FEW C-SS that he actually owned. He sold most of his original stuff for top dollar, as I understand, so he still came out quite well off financially.
He took a hit on VERY FEW C-SS that he actually owned. He sold most of his original stuff for top dollar, as I understand, so he still came out quite well off financially.
tjg79
Senior Member
I haven't seen any proof of the existence of a "Grand Plan" by lid gurus to cause widespread C-SS acceptance or the need for a "Grand Plan," because many were fooled by the spray job.
If there was any "Grand Plan," it was the C-SS faker's plan to make some money at the expense of gullible lid collectors who can't distinguish between a decal and a spray-job. I do see indications that the God of Lids doesn't want to accept that all C-SS lids are fakes, because he's issued C-SS COAs. Doug B doesn't issue COAs, but he's honored a refund for a C-SS lid, because it was sold as legit, but he now knows they are all fakes.
If you want to serve the lid hobby and further expose fakery, set aside your personal animosity for Doug B and focus your energy on those that deny evidence and facts such as Kelly Hicks and David May.
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M45
Well-known member
Extrapolation is an estimation of a value based on extending a known sequence of values or facts beyond the area that is certainly known. In a general sense, to extrapolate is to infer something that is not explicitly stated from existing information.
http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/extrapolation-and-interpolation
I used extrapolation when writing the lot# book. I took the known, limited facts of the collecting world and extended this knowledge base beyond was was then currently known.
I'm extrapolating with the C-SS discussion as well, taking the known facts (quotes, statements, occurrences, situations, etc...) and reaching conclusions based on those facts. Remember the DougB quote about 'plenty of period photographic evidence' supporting C-SS, and remember how when you first saw it you said you had never known it existed ? You had to dig deep into the archives to find that statement as it went back a bit. You are not doing this digging into archives to find contradictory quotes by DougB as I have because you have no reason to do that. Thus, it comes as no surprise that you are not "seeing the culpable DougB at all" as I am.
You will never see the "culpable DougB" by only going back into recent history. You have to dig back years into archives (oh yes, that is no longer possible on GHW due to the "hero" DougB hard deleting EVERYTHING he has ever said on that forum).
M45, I'm just not seeing the "culpable DougB" at all. I see the "whistle blower Doug" and someone the hobby should be grateful to for having a spine and integrity, both things that too many lack in the 3R collecting hobby.
You seem quite confident that you have all of the pertinent facts from recent history, you seem quite contented that they are accurate, and you cannot understand why I would question the hero DougB.
And when tjg read the DougB statement about "plenty of period photographic evidence" supporting C-SS, (a blatantly false statement) he watered it down considerably when he regurgitated it. Yes, he agreed that DougB's statement of period photographic evidence was "flaky". Tjg will never see the culpable DougB either because not only is he not digging into archives, but the evidence that is being found he has watered down to fit in with his understanding of the "hero DougB".
Tjg will also never see the "Grand Plan" of widespread C-SS acceptance mentioned because it is being inferred from existing information and was not explicitly stated.
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tjg79
Senior Member
You make a lot of assumptions, based on speculation with no supporting evidence, to arrive at a complex theory of collusion, deception, conspiracy, and good knowledge of the fakery by lid gurus.
On the other hand, we have the simple theory that these lid gurus were fooled by a faker with excellent airbrush/template skills and their knowledge was less than perfect.
Occam's razor: Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
I think the simplest theory, which happens to be as Doug B describes on this forum, is the most likely theory to match reality. Doug B hasn't given me any cause to believe that he's a deceptive individual. On the contrary, he clearly explains his positions based on his beliefs.
On the other hand, we have the simple theory that these lid gurus were fooled by a faker with excellent airbrush/template skills and their knowledge was less than perfect.
Occam's razor: Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
I think the simplest theory, which happens to be as Doug B describes on this forum, is the most likely theory to match reality. Doug B hasn't given me any cause to believe that he's a deceptive individual. On the contrary, he clearly explains his positions based on his beliefs.
tjg79
Senior Member
Did I?
How does my comment water-down your quote? I've highlighted your quote in its entirety and merely reference it to make my comment in concurrence.
Why would someone involved in a long running scam with criminal implications then suddenly not only out said scam, but expend a good bit of money, time, and effort painstakingly proving it up, taking heat along the way and refunding on a bad helmet? Seems to me that it would have been quite simple for DougB to have simply done nothing. Had he done nothing where would we be? Getting censored and banned at WAF, GWH, and WR for trying to discuss this? Had DougB done nothing then nothing would have happened. Under your theory, what's better for DougB, complete reveal of the CRSS fraud, or nothing?
tjg79
Senior Member
We'd be right back where we were, C-SS lids would still be selling for a premium, we'd had never known Kelly Hicks' true feelings about XRF lid testing, and M45's lot number study with criticisms of the C-SS lids would still be viewed as background noise by the lid GOBs. I think Doug B's C-SS lid investigation enhanced the lot number study's credibility and M45's reputation as a lid guru.
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tjg79
Senior Member
Faulty logic; extrapolation and interpolation are mathematical terms that involve estimating data points that fit a curve. "Extrapolating" a person's motivation, beliefs or intent based on out of context forum quotes is highly speculative. To go from the "plenty of period photographic evidence" quote to the allegation with no supporting evidence of "Grand Plan to promote C-SS lid authenticity" to deceive the lid collecting community requires a vivid imagination with a heaping dose of negative bias. I think your Doug B theory is based on conjecture at best.
At some point in time recently, Doug B confronted his belief in the controversial C-SS lid's legitimacy and concluded they were all fakes based on evidence. I think it's safe to assume that prior to that point in time, Doug B's forum comments are positive towards the C-SS lid and after that point in time, his forum comments are negative towards the C-SS lid. I don't think Doug B made positive comments about the C-SS lid while believing them to be high end fakes and participated in a Kelly Hicks "Grand Plan" to foist the fake C-SS lid on the lid collecting community. And, then realizing that the jig was up on the C-SS lid due to mounting evidence, breaking off his relationship with the God of Lids, fabricating an investigation that found they were all spray-jobs, and flipping his public opinion to save face with the lid collecting community to maintain "hero" status. It just doesn't make sense.
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katzenplatz
Member
I think DougB's deletion of his entire history at GHW speaks volumes. Unless he is literally a spoiled, selfish, tantrum prone three year old child, I can think of no reason for him to do that other than as a desperate CYA move. It makes his break with the Champaign orthodoxy seem less like a white knight crusade than a case where one party has decided to throw the others under the bus.
He probably got disgusted with the whole thing after seeing the reaction of some people. I find it rather disgusting and it revealed that the general integrity in the hobby has degraded and continues to do so. Why waste time, effort, and money trying to save some people who are too ethically apathetic to appreciate it or worse, are even hostile to it? That there isn't a massive uprising and demand to get to the bottom of this reflects poorly on the people in the hobby. That some are attacking DougB for revealing this is worse. Why waste your time on such people?
katzenplatz
Member
I understand how DougB might become frustrated with the lack of action after his revelations but certainly he knew that they are many decent people in the hobby and that the problem is the Good Ol' Boy network and the repressive forums they dominate. I can understand his dropping out for good but still can not understand why he would erase a decade of posts unless his goal was to completely wreck GHW2 on his way out. Judging from the reaction of GHW2's administrators, they don't feel that he meant them any harm. They didn't have to acquiesce to his request to gut a major part of their forum. My theory is that the Champaign house of cards was ready to fall even without DougB's expose, and he simply decided to save his own skin, perhaps only to preserve his reputation or maybe to avoid legal action/responsibility. These kind of things happen often in the real world, where a co-conspirator in a shady/illegal venture quickly has a change of heart and becomes a co-operating witness with the hope that they can get off scot-free while his compatriots take the fall. Had he not deleted his entire GHW2 history I would feel entirely different but given what he did there it is the only logical conclusion I can come to. What better way to CYA than to erase your entire history?
tjg79
Senior Member
Why would he need to do a CYA action?
M45
Well-known member
I am thinking the same thing, Katzen. DougB didn't 'blow the lid' off of the fiasco nearly as much as lot# research wrecked the "Grand Plan" for widespread C-SS acceptance and forced DougB to switch to damage control. In mid 2015 after nearly a decade of him promoting the C-SS fraud (as a DECAL), he could see that lot# research was changing collector opinion and he was on the wrong side of the tracks. If someone else had done the Mythbusting expose-e before he did, he would have looked like a charlatan. "He simply decided to save his own skin" as you said, and shifted gears. Now he would "expose" C-SS for what it really was and come clean with all of those fine painted details we saw in the Mythbusting work - details he saw under magnification years prior but kept to himself.
So the question is not, "where would we be if DougB did not 'blow the lid off of C-SS' ", the question is, "where would we be if lot# research had not wrecked the Grand Plan and force DougB to come clean."
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Great discussion. A fellow trader and collector who is one of the most honest men I know is sitting on two of these that were absolutely guaranteed as originals by the top authorities when he bought them over ten years ago. The prices paid were high even for that time and now he is stuck with two bad lids that I know he won't pass on to someone else. They'll most likely be reduced to restored finishes and he'll take a bath.
