Third Party Press

A question for those that have been collecting for a while....10 plus years...

Interesting thread...muscle car guys try to do this stuff all the time with extrapolating options to say "1 of ..." Makes for some fun debate

Without first identifying what constitutes "collectible" the math analysis is useless....Does "collectible" mean "factory fresh"...ie: just like it left the factory before any use? Does it mean the previous but able to show combat use (dirt, grime, dings) and what percentage of "use" is acceptable? The list could be exhaustive...

Once you identify the control of "collectible" then work backwards from production numbers...but even this won't get any real meaningful data...as too many variables unknown, such as number actually brought back in that condition by GI's, how many imported, even as simple of a thing as a data base of total number of K98's in the states regardless of condition or "collectability," aren't known

I would guess based on how many guys here are looking...how few show up for sale....how many might be in closets, collections etc...probably around 15-20k in the US...and I feel that might be actually high...



A really good way to maybe gauge this, would be to ask the question since this is where a lot of the true enthusiast...and likely the guys that "collect" these the most hang out...

"How many "collectible" rifles are in each others collections?" I would guess even the most ardent collector here, has less than 200 truly "collectible" rifles...so take a rough poll and do the analysis....



As a point of reference Matt D, George, and myself all own legit 1903 USMC Unertl Sniper rifles...we know there were 1047 rifles which "could" have been converted to snipers by the USMC per USMC documents. We also know documents suggest there were less than 400 available for use post WW2...and the general idea is @250-300 rifles were actually converted for use. These numbers are derived from documents in the National Archives.

This being said....A group of us studies and collects data on all rifles reported to be Unertl Snipers...We have @25 original rifles in our database to date which the group has vetted. So @10% of the rough total. which sounds high in some ways...but when you consider guys have been tracking serials for over 25 years...doesn't sound like a lot. Keep in mind even amongst this small group of @25...there are variables to condition and how truly "original" the serials are with some rifles being totally as the USMC built (my rifle for instance) and others being "restored" over the years or having had things done post war (Lyman 48 sight holes drilled for instance)

The thing to remember is this site and the guys here...probably represent the bulk of "collector" grade rifles on the 'net...as if you "collect" you most likely want to learn about others collections...So even if you add up the totals here...and add 300% for closets, museums, etc...The number probably won't be a large percentage of the total produced...as for the longest time these weren't really "collectible," and true "collectible" status is the top 3-5% of the total..

Just my thoughts..
 
I think about the only thing you can safely say “a fixed number that is getting smaller”. Why smaller? Cause bubba is still out there. Ok so we’re not sawing the front end off the stock anymore, but every day here we see folks finding untouched rifles and “improving” them. Really no different than the whizzed buttplates and bleached stocks except by degree. Mikes number has a logic that gets you to a place that feels right though. You can come at it a couple different ways and see if they all lead to around the same number and have some confidence. Ie How many of us are there, and how many do we hold? How much of the k98 community do we represent? But I think the real question is how many are in and out of the woodwork. Bob I remember your earlier attempt too and I thought you brought a lot of good logic to it.
 
The various serial number studies might also represent another “Dipstick”. How many of your guns are in there? What sample size might this represent? Certainly a fraction but perhaps something that can be extrapolated. How many k98s trade on GB vs. other types we might have better numbers on? All imperfect but perhaps good starting points.
 
.... another indirect method is to estimate how many collectors are in a given state.... and then estimate how many a typical collection has. I think folks here probably hold, on average, more than the average collector.

A single rifle is not a collection... so how many collectors in OH? Perhaps 150- 300 (or about 1.5-3 collectors per County). Some collections surely hold more than 100 guns.... but the collector average is likely 5-10.... Therefore, OH has 750 - 3000 .... seems like that captures it.... averaging the high and low we arrive at 1875 guns in OH.

Apparently, OH is one of the hot bed for 98s ...
  • if ten states are in the same league as OH... then 18,750 guns for the 10 states
  • if ten states are at 80% of OH....................15000
  • if ten states are at 60% of OH....................11250
  • if ten states are at 40% of OH.................... 7500
  • if ten states are at 15% of OH.................... 2800
    __________________________________ total 55,300
 
Bob in OHIO said:
.... another indirect method is to estimate how many collectors are in a given state.... and then estimate how many a typical collection has. I think folks here probably hold, on average, more than the average collector.

A single rifle is not a collection... so how many collectors in OH? Perhaps 150- 300 (or about 1.5-3 collectors per County). Some collections surely hold more than 100 guns.... but the collector average is likely 5-10.... Therefore, OH has 750 - 3000 .... seems like that captures it.... averaging the high and low we arrive at 1875 guns in OH.

Apparently, OH is one of the hot bed for 98s ...
  • if ten states are in the same league as OH... then 18,750 guns for the 10 states
  • if ten states are at 80% of OH....................15000
  • if ten states are at 60% of OH....................11250
  • if ten states are at 40% of OH.................... 7500
  • if ten states are at 15% of OH.................... 2800
    __________________________________ total 55,300
Click to expand...


I like Bob’s analysis. It seems to somewhat add up to me. I think the average K98 collector has +\-10 rifles in their collection. There are collections that far exceeded that, but on average most would not have over 25 rifles. I am not saying that Dave’s number is wrong, but if there were 1 million collectible rifles in the USA, wouldn’t we see more for sale on GB, online retailers and maybe even here on the forum, with the given market price for “nice” examples? I also agree with Tom’s thoughts, collect what you like and makes you happy!
 
Jory, that's a typical Fermi problem.
I will give it a try using orders of magnitude.

1.4*10^7 K98k produced
Let's assume there are X*10^6 that have survived to this day (not lost or destroyed in WWII, Korea, Indochina/Vietnam, etc), X equal to a value between 1 to 9.
Let's again assume 1 out of 10 are in original condition (not sporterized, not a mismatch, not rebarreled, etc), that makes X*10^5.
If again, you assume 1 out of 10 are collector grade (all-matching, very good condition of blueing and stock), it leaves X*10^4 K98k

So, below 100,000 rifles worldwide (my estimate).

Now if we consider the US only, there were 2 million US soldiers in Europe during WWII.
Assuming around 1 out of 10 brought back a K98k, 2*10^5 vet bring back overall in various conditions.
Then imports to the US, a wild guess here : 1 to 5*10^5.
Applying the same 1 to 10 collector grade ratio, the higher estimate would be 70,000. I would favor around 50,000 (50% of worldwide stock).

I liked Mike's approach, but I fear S147/k are not a representative sample (low survival rate of early K98k)
 
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Oh you missed something special. It was a show in the early 2000’s in which this supposedly hip dude would “pimp” someone’s ride, in most cases a van, by putting a pool table in the back with shag carpet, painting flames on the side, and putting massive chrome wheels on it...

It has been said that Mitchell was inspired by this show and began applying the same principal to K98’s
 
excellent thread

the op asks for opinions of collectors, problem is on 3-4 collectors responded??? atleast he got plenty of opinions
 
I think that both Mike (farb) and Bob (in Ohio as am I) attack this question very sensibly, and they also have a great deal of personal experience “seeing” what is out there. That said I would agree, something between 25,000 to 50,000 collectible K98 rifles in the USA. BUT.... does that include Russian Captures? Sporterized conversions? .....

We could get into a discussion of what really constitutes “collectible” but since the major thrust of THIS forum is K98 production, original rifles are far more “valuable” than others. I agree with this! I don’t think ALL R/C guns are junk though. Some can be of great benefit to research. They have to be taken as they are. Are R/C guns and/or sporterized guns included in this number? One can argue that sporterized guns DO count as collectible. Hmmm.... I mean between companies importing K98s over the years in addition to veteran bring-backs, are there 25-50 thousand K98 rifles in existence in the USA that are not R/C guns? I say there are.

Who knows how many guns are still in the possession of the families of the soldiers who brought them back? Every collecting hobby goes into this: how many of “x” were made vs how many survive?? That’s hard to gauge for sure. But I think the 25-50 thousand range makes sense. Besides, knowing Mike and Bob a little bit, I agree just based on their opinion. I think the range is legit.


Sent from my top secret official Bunker of the Order of the Def’s Hed.
 
joryfreeburg

interesting you want my opinion ? well I am not WW1, inter war , or WW2 - K-98 expert

sorry I am in the same boat, if someone came to me with a k-98, I would run here, research it and contact MFarb

I collect East German, so I cant say my field is not as rigid, my criteria in Collecting is different

P -38's or other axis handguns that's different again, last 30 years its been east german provenience items. & post war Police handguns


So considering the eastern front had the most activity, I would say most firearms captured was by the Russians,

followed by US troops from north africa, italy and france into germany,

Then the english/commonwealth & french troops

then there are arms captured within germany by the russians, but never went to Russia, again a large amount also in Czech republic, yugo , poland etc.

I would say more than likely the most amount of "COLLECTOR" Grade firearms are here in the US but that number is also being reduced through attrition , by the "I got to shoot my G/K -43 guys" ( was polite there) and the rest of the "I will only shot it once" dont mind the range table scratches or my all time favorite the "Restorer" little steel wool and demel power wheel guys

So the true number is getting smaller every day I open this site and Gun Boards
 
OttoVonBismarck said:
It was a show in the early 2000’s in which this supposedly hip dude would “pimp” someone’s ride, in most cases a van, by putting a pool table in the back with shag carpet, painting flames on the side, and putting massive chrome wheels on it...
Click to expand...

From the sound of it, I didn't miss much.

Although I DO remember a tape that a friend showed me, where Tom Green converted his dad's car into a "Slut-Mobile". That was a howl!
 
R.W. Parker said:
..How, exactly, does one go about becoming a "rifle pimp"?
Click to expand...

Well first off you'll need to ditch any semblence of conscience. The pimp hand will need to be strong. Then you need a solid supply of wire wheels, buffing wheels, compound, 'stock goop' (lot's of solid choices here but suffice to say 'the shinier the better') and some sort of fake blue or black to really make things pop. Remember your ultimate goal is to make it as shiny, smooth and glowing as possible so any 'real collectors' will be dropping their trousers. It's really that simple. :googlie
 
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